PHYTOCLIMATIC DYNAMICS IN NATURAL OROMEDITERRANEAN FORESTS OF Pinus sylvestris L. IN THE CENTRAL SPANISH IBERIAN PENINSULA. SUITABILITY AND VERSATILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

• DOI: 10.37572/EdArt_3107255986

• Palavras-chave: Phytoclimatology, climate change, suitability, versatility, Pinus sylvestris, vulnerability, adaptive management

• Keywords: Phytoclimatology, climate change, suitability, versatility, Pinus sylvestris, vulnerability, adaptive management

• Abstract:

  The effects of phytoclimatic dynamics in Mediterranean high mountains on the current and future phytoclimatic suitability of natural oromediterranean Scots pine forests (Pinus sylvestris L.) are analysed at a specific location, “Puerto de Navacerrada” (Guadarrama mountains, Central Spain, 1893 m), between 1951 and 2024. The use of phytoclimatic models applied to the temporal dynamics of the values of 12 climatic variables in 30-year mobile averages allows quantifying the changes of increasing thermoxericity in the site suitability indices for 24 physiognomies and 20 forest types. The results suggest that for the time being the dominant forest will continue to be those dominated by Pinus sylvestris, but with evolution from oroborealoid towards nemoromediterranean phytoclimatic positions, which will decrease the current exclusivity of pine, allowing the gradual entry of the decidous broad-leaved species Quercus pyrenaica from lower altitudes. This suggests an increase of their phytoclimatic versatility and a decrease in their vulnerability, although it augurs changes in composition, physiognomy and interspecific competition relations, which will force us to rethink adaptive management planning and actions.